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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Magdeburg

MAG

Hertha BSC

HER

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Magdeburg35%
Draw26%
Hertha BSC39%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.54

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.5%
  • 128.6%
  • 018.2%
  • 218.0%
  • 107.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession48%
36%Territory35%
26%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.12
6.8%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for Hertha BSC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.