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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Hannover 96

HAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Karlsruher SC28%
Draw26%
Hannover 9647%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.64

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 0–19.8%
  • 1–29.4%
  • 0–27.3%
  • 1–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession50%
40%Territory37%
32%From set plays44%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.5%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Karlsruher SC, 3 for Hannover 96. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.