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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Darmstadt

DAR

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Darmstadt40%
Draw29%
Kaiserslautern32%

Expected goals

1.35 – 1.19

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 0–19.5%
  • 0–09.1%
  • 2–18.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

43%Possession44%
38%Territory29%
22%From set plays19%
0.08Chance quality0.11
4.5%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Darmstadt, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.