Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 21

Bochum

BOC

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bochum42%
Draw27%
Dynamo Dresden31%

Expected goals

1.46 – 1.23

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession49%
40%Territory31%
39%From set plays39%
0.10Chance quality0.15
5.8%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bochum, 3 for Dynamo Dresden. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.