2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Kaiserslautern
KAI
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Kaiserslautern48%
Draw28%
St. Pauli24%
Expected goals
1.45 – 0.96
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession52%
41%Territory47%
28%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kaiserslautern, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Kaiserslautern
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.