2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Magdeburg
MAG
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel39%
Draw28%
Magdeburg33%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.28
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.0%
- 0–19.2%
- 2–18.5%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession52%
40%Territory36%
35%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.07
4.9%Directness6.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Magdeburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.