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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Hannover 96

HAN

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hannover 9651%
Draw27%
Darmstadt23%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.01

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.3%
  • 1–112.0%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hannover 96 get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession43%
37%Territory38%
44%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.08
6.4%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hannover 96, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.