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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Greuther Fürth43%
Draw24%
Energie Cottbus32%

Expected goals

1.77 – 1.51

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

65%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 1–27.4%
  • 1–07.2%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession49%
40%Territory41%
10%From set plays23%
0.10Chance quality0.11
5.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for Energie Cottbus. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.