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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld36%
Draw29%
1. FC Nürnberg36%

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.28

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 0–110.1%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 0–09.0%
  • 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arminia Bielefeld get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

50%Possession54%
33%Territory35%
33%From set plays13%
0.08Chance quality0.10
5.8%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.