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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 20

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld41%
Draw27%
1. FC Nürnberg31%

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.27

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–18.3%
  • 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

1. FC Nürnberg will have the ball; Arminia Bielefeld will not mind.

43%Possession61%
34%Territory42%
33%From set plays24%
0.07Chance quality0.07
6.5%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.