2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
St. Pauli
STP
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli46%
Draw28%
Holstein Kiel26%
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.07
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
St. Pauli will have the ball; Holstein Kiel will not mind.
56%Possession45%
42%Territory28%
31%From set plays30%
0.11Chance quality0.11
2.9%Directness7.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.