2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 19
St. Pauli
STP
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli39%
Draw30%
Holstein Kiel32%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.13
Over 2.5
42%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–010.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession53%
47%Territory40%
32%From set plays35%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.