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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg56%
Draw24%
Greuther Fürth20%

Expected goals

1.82 – 1.05

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 2–19.9%
  • 2–09.2%
  • 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession55%
35%Territory40%
13%From set plays10%
0.10Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Greuther Fürth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.