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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Darmstadt

DAR

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Darmstadt43%
Draw27%
Dynamo Dresden30%

Expected goals

1.49 – 1.22

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–18.2%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

39%Possession58%
25%Territory31%
50%From set plays42%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Darmstadt, 3 for Dynamo Dresden. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.