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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 19

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus37%
Draw26%
Arminia Bielefeld37%

Expected goals

1.51 – 1.52

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 0–17.8%
  • 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession50%
41%Territory33%
23%From set plays33%
0.11Chance quality0.08
6.7%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.