2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
VfL Osnabrück
VFL
FC Heidenheim
FCH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
VfL Osnabrück35%
Draw26%
FC Heidenheim39%
Expected goals
1.42 – 1.52
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.6%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–18.4%
- 2–18.0%
- 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession40%
32%Territory30%
26%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.17
5.0%Directness9.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.