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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück35%
Draw26%
FC Heidenheim39%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.52

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1111.6%
  • 128.6%
  • 018.4%
  • 218.0%
  • 107.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession40%
32%Territory30%
26%From set plays28%
0.13Chance quality0.17
5.0%Directness9.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.