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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden32%
Draw28%
1. FC Nürnberg41%

Expected goals

1.24 – 1.44

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 0–08.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

58%Possession54%
31%Territory35%
42%From set plays13%
0.09Chance quality0.10
4.0%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.