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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden43%
Draw25%
1. FC Nürnberg32%

Expected goals

1.71 – 1.48

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 1–07.5%
  • 1–27.5%
  • 2–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

1. FC Nürnberg will have the ball; Dynamo Dresden will not mind.

49%Possession61%
31%Territory42%
39%From set plays24%
0.15Chance quality0.07
4.7%Directness5.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.