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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Holstein Kiel41%
Draw30%
Darmstadt29%

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.05

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–012.7%
  • 0–011.1%
  • 0–110.3%
  • 2–18.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession43%
28%Territory38%
30%From set plays22%
0.11Chance quality0.08
7.2%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.