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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Holstein Kiel40%
Draw28%
Darmstadt31%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.19

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 0–08.9%
  • 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Holstein Kiel will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

53%Possession39%
40%Territory25%
35%From set plays50%
0.10Chance quality0.12
4.9%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.