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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Hertha BSC

HER

Bochum

BOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC48%
Draw26%
Bochum26%

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.13

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–010.9%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 0–07.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession55%
35%Territory37%
28%From set plays26%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.