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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Greuther Fürth

GRE

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Greuther Fürth28%
Draw27%
St. Pauli45%

Expected goals

1.16 – 1.52

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.2%
  • 0–110.9%
  • 1–29.2%
  • 1–08.0%
  • 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession56%
27%Territory42%
18%From set plays31%
0.06Chance quality0.11
6.7%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.