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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Greuther Fürth

GRE

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Greuther Fürth42%
Draw28%
St. Pauli30%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.19

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.5%
  • 1010.8%
  • 218.8%
  • 018.8%
  • 008.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

St. Pauli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

55%Possession52%
40%Territory47%
10%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.