2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18
Greuther Fürth
GRE
St. Pauli
STP
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Greuther Fürth42%
Draw28%
St. Pauli30%
Expected goals
1.43 – 1.19
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–18.8%
- 0–18.8%
- 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
St. Pauli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession52%
40%Territory47%
10%From set plays32%
0.10Chance quality0.09
5.7%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Greuther Fürth, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.