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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 18

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld53%
Draw24%
Karlsruher SC23%

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.14

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.0%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.3%
  • 0–16.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession49%
33%Territory40%
33%From set plays43%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for Karlsruher SC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.