2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
VfL Osnabrück
VFL
Darmstadt
DAR
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
VfL Osnabrück42%
Draw29%
Darmstadt30%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.13
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.8%
- 1–011.6%
- 0–09.4%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
42%Possession43%
34%Territory38%
21%From set plays22%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.9%Directness4.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.