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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück36%
Draw28%
Darmstadt37%

Expected goals

1.36 – 1.37

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 1–09.2%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Darmstadt get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

40%Possession39%
32%Territory25%
26%From set plays50%
0.13Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.