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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

VfL Osnabrück42%
Draw29%
Darmstadt30%

Expected goals

1.37 – 1.13

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.8%
  • 1–011.6%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 2–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

42%Possession43%
34%Territory38%
21%From set plays22%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.9%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for VfL Osnabrück, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.