2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Dynamo Dresden
DYN
Wolfsburg
WOL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Dynamo Dresden42%
Draw26%
Wolfsburg32%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.36
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–17.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
58%Possession56%
31%Territory35%
42%From set plays31%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.0%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for Wolfsburg. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.