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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Magdeburg

MAG

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Magdeburg44%
Draw26%
FC Heidenheim31%

Expected goals

1.63 – 1.35

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 1–27.3%
  • 0–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Magdeburg will have the ball; FC Heidenheim will not mind.

52%Possession40%
36%Territory30%
26%From set plays28%
0.07Chance quality0.17
6.8%Directness9.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.