Skip to content

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Bochum

BOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Holstein Kiel38%
Draw30%
Bochum32%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.12

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.3%
  • 1–012.0%
  • 0–011.0%
  • 0–110.8%
  • 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession45%
28%Territory39%
30%From set plays38%
0.11Chance quality0.10
7.2%Directness6.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.