2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Bochum
BOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel35%
Draw30%
Bochum35%
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.19
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.2%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–111.0%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession55%
40%Territory37%
35%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.