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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Hertha BSC

HER

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC43%
Draw26%
1. FC Nürnberg31%

Expected goals

1.56 – 1.30

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–09.4%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–17.7%
  • 1–27.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hertha BSC get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

48%Possession54%
35%Territory35%
28%From set plays13%
0.12Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.