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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Eintracht Braunschweig

EIN

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Eintracht Braunschweig42%
Draw28%
St. Pauli30%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.17

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–08.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

St. Pauli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession52%
37%Territory47%
17%From set plays32%
0.12Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.