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2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 17

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Hannover 96

HAN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld35%
Draw28%
Hannover 9638%

Expected goals

1.33 – 1.39

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.4%
  • 019.5%
  • 109.0%
  • 128.4%
  • 218.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession55%
33%Territory40%
33%From set plays25%
0.08Chance quality0.14
5.8%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for Hannover 96. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.