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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Wolfsburg

WOL

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wolfsburg38%
Draw27%
Arminia Bielefeld35%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.37

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 0–18.5%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 1–28.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession50%
35%Territory33%
31%From set plays33%
0.12Chance quality0.08
5.1%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsburg, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.