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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Wolfsburg

WOL

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wolfsburg39%
Draw28%
Arminia Bielefeld33%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.24

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–010.3%
  • 0–19.2%
  • 2–18.5%
  • 0–08.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wolfsburg will have the ball; Arminia Bielefeld will not mind.

62%Possession43%
39%Territory34%
20%From set plays33%
0.06Chance quality0.07
4.1%Directness6.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsburg, 3 for Arminia Bielefeld. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.