2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
St. Pauli
STP
Hertha BSC
HER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli29%
Draw27%
Hertha BSC44%
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.50
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession48%
47%Territory35%
32%From set plays28%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.6%Directness6.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Hertha BSC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.