2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16
St. Pauli
STP
Hertha BSC
HER
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli28%
Draw27%
Hertha BSC45%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.51
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–08.2%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
St. Pauli get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
56%Possession59%
42%Territory39%
31%From set plays7%
0.11Chance quality0.15
2.9%Directness4.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Hertha BSC. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.