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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg46%
Draw25%
VfL Osnabrück28%

Expected goals

1.70 – 1.31

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.2%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 2–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

1. FC Nürnberg will have the ball; VfL Osnabrück will not mind.

61%Possession42%
42%Territory34%
24%From set plays21%
0.07Chance quality0.15
5.0%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for VfL Osnabrück. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.