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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Karlsruher SC34%
Draw26%
Dynamo Dresden40%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.55

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.5%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–18.4%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession49%
40%Territory31%
32%From set plays39%
0.09Chance quality0.15
6.5%Directness4.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Karlsruher SC, 3 for Dynamo Dresden. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.