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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Eintracht Braunschweig

EIN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

FC Heidenheim48%
Draw25%
Eintracht Braunschweig27%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.27

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 2–19.5%
  • 1–09.1%
  • 2–07.2%
  • 1–26.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

40%Possession46%
30%Territory37%
28%From set plays17%
0.17Chance quality0.12
9.1%Directness5.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for FC Heidenheim, 3 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.