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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Darmstadt

DAR

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Darmstadt45%
Draw26%
Greuther Fürth28%

Expected goals

1.59 – 1.23

Over 2.5

53%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–010.0%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 0–17.5%
  • 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Greuther Fürth will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

39%Possession55%
25%Territory40%
50%From set plays10%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Darmstadt, 3 for Greuther Fürth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.