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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus34%
Draw28%
Holstein Kiel39%

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.41

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–19.7%
  • 1–08.9%
  • 1–28.5%
  • 2–17.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Holstein Kiel get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession45%
31%Territory28%
12%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.11
8.8%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.