Skip to content
Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 16

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus42%
Draw26%
Holstein Kiel32%

Expected goals

1.61 – 1.39

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.4%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 1–08.5%
  • 1–27.6%
  • 0–17.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession53%
41%Territory40%
23%From set plays35%
0.11Chance quality0.10
6.7%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.