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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden56%
Draw23%
Energie Cottbus22%

Expected goals

1.99 – 1.21

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–19.9%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–08.7%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Dynamo Dresden get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

49%Possession45%
31%Territory31%
39%From set plays12%
0.15Chance quality0.10
4.7%Directness8.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for Energie Cottbus. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.