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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Magdeburg

MAG

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Magdeburg34%
Draw28%
1. FC Nürnberg38%

Expected goals

1.32 – 1.40

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–19.6%
  • 1–09.0%
  • 1–28.4%
  • 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession54%
36%Territory35%
26%From set plays13%
0.07Chance quality0.10
6.8%Directness4.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.