2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Hannover 96
HAN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel30%
Draw27%
Hannover 9643%
Expected goals
1.22 – 1.48
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.4%
- 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession55%
40%Territory40%
35%From set plays25%
0.10Chance quality0.14
4.9%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Hannover 96. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.