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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Hertha BSC

HER

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC61%
Draw24%
Darmstadt16%

Expected goals

1.79 – 0.82

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.7%
  • 2–011.6%
  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hertha BSC will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

59%Possession43%
39%Territory38%
7%From set plays22%
0.15Chance quality0.08
4.6%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.