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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Hertha BSC

HER

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC54%
Draw24%
Darmstadt22%

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.13

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

58%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.8%
  • 1–010.1%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.5%
  • 0–06.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Hertha BSC will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

48%Possession39%
35%Territory25%
28%From set plays50%
0.12Chance quality0.12
6.7%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.