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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 15

Bochum

BOC

FC Heidenheim

FCH

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bochum39%
Draw27%
FC Heidenheim33%

Expected goals

1.43 – 1.30

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.3%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 0–18.7%
  • 2–18.6%
  • 1–27.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession51%
39%Territory34%
38%From set plays45%
0.10Chance quality0.09
6.1%Directness7.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bochum, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.