2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14
St. Pauli
STP
FC Heidenheim
FCH
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli43%
Draw26%
FC Heidenheim31%
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.35
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 1–27.4%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
56%Possession51%
42%Territory34%
31%From set plays45%
0.11Chance quality0.09
2.9%Directness7.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for FC Heidenheim. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.