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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

1. FC Nürnberg

FCN

Bochum

BOC

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

1. FC Nürnberg46%
Draw28%
Bochum26%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.04

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–012.5%
  • 0–09.4%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

54%Possession55%
35%Territory37%
13%From set plays26%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.8%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.