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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Greuther Fürth

GRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Kaiserslautern54%
Draw25%
Greuther Fürth22%

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.06

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 1–011.2%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–09.0%
  • 0–06.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

44%Possession50%
29%Territory27%
19%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.06
5.7%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Kaiserslautern, 3 for Greuther Fürth. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.