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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Energie Cottbus

ENE

VfL Osnabrück

VFL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Energie Cottbus34%
Draw26%
VfL Osnabrück40%

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.53

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.7%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession42%
31%Territory34%
12%From set plays21%
0.10Chance quality0.15
8.8%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Energie Cottbus, 3 for VfL Osnabrück. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.