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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 14

Arminia Bielefeld

ARM

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arminia Bielefeld47%
Draw27%
Dynamo Dresden26%

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.13

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.1%
  • 1–011.1%
  • 2–19.3%
  • 2–07.9%
  • 0–07.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

50%Possession58%
33%Territory31%
33%From set plays42%
0.08Chance quality0.09
5.8%Directness4.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arminia Bielefeld, 3 for Dynamo Dresden. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.