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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden43%
Draw28%
St. Pauli28%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.11

Over 2.5

46%

Both to score

52%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–011.7%
  • 0–09.0%
  • 2–18.9%
  • 0–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

58%Possession52%
31%Territory47%
42%From set plays32%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.0%Directness4.6%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.