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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Dynamo Dresden

DYN

St. Pauli

STP

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Dynamo Dresden40%
Draw27%
St. Pauli34%

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.38

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.8%
  • 1–08.8%
  • 2–18.6%
  • 0–18.0%
  • 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

49%Possession56%
31%Territory42%
39%From set plays31%
0.15Chance quality0.11
4.7%Directness2.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Dynamo Dresden, 3 for St. Pauli. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.