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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Magdeburg

MAG

Energie Cottbus

ENE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Magdeburg49%
Draw24%
Energie Cottbus27%

Expected goals

1.87 – 1.38

Over 2.5

62%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.2%
  • 2–19.4%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 1–26.7%
  • 2–06.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

52%Possession49%
36%Territory41%
26%From set plays23%
0.07Chance quality0.11
6.8%Directness6.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Magdeburg, 3 for Energie Cottbus. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.