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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Kaiserslautern

KAI

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Holstein Kiel40%
Draw28%
Kaiserslautern31%

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.20

Over 2.5

47%

Both to score

53%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–010.8%
  • 0–19.3%
  • 0–08.8%
  • 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

45%Possession44%
28%Territory29%
30%From set plays19%
0.11Chance quality0.11
7.2%Directness5.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.