2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13
Holstein Kiel
HOL
Kaiserslautern
KAI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Holstein Kiel36%
Draw29%
Kaiserslautern35%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.22
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.1%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–17.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
53%Possession48%
40%Territory41%
35%From set plays28%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness5.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Holstein Kiel, 3 for Kaiserslautern. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.