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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Hertha BSC

HER

Karlsruher SC

KAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hertha BSC61%
Draw21%
Karlsruher SC18%

Expected goals

2.18 – 1.15

Over 2.5

64%

Both to score

61%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.0%
  • 2–08.5%
  • 1–08.3%
  • 3–17.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession49%
35%Territory40%
28%From set plays43%
0.12Chance quality0.09
6.7%Directness6.0%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hertha BSC, 3 for Karlsruher SC. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.