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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Bochum

BOC

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bochum46%
Draw28%
Darmstadt26%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.06

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

51%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 1–012.2%
  • 0–09.3%
  • 2–19.1%
  • 0–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bochum will have the ball; Darmstadt will not mind.

55%Possession39%
37%Territory25%
26%From set plays50%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.9%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bochum, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.