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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 13

Bochum

BOC

Darmstadt

DAR

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Bochum43%
Draw30%
Darmstadt28%

Expected goals

1.31 – 1.02

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.1%
  • 1–113.1%
  • 0–011.1%
  • 0–19.9%
  • 2–18.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Bochum get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

45%Possession43%
40%Territory38%
39%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.08
5.8%Directness4.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bochum, 3 for Darmstadt. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.