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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Wolfsburg

WOL

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wolfsburg43%
Draw27%
Holstein Kiel30%

Expected goals

1.54 – 1.26

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.0%
  • 1–09.8%
  • 2–19.0%
  • 0–17.9%
  • 1–27.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession53%
35%Territory40%
31%From set plays35%
0.12Chance quality0.10
5.1%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsburg, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.