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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence

2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12

Wolfsburg

WOL

Holstein Kiel

HOL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Wolfsburg42%
Draw28%
Holstein Kiel31%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.22

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

55%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–18.8%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Wolfsburg will have the ball; Holstein Kiel will not mind.

62%Possession45%
39%Territory28%
20%From set plays30%
0.06Chance quality0.11
4.1%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Wolfsburg, 3 for Holstein Kiel. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 90 matches, not the full season.