2. Bundesliga · Matchweek 12
St. Pauli
STP
Bochum
BOC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
St. Pauli33%
Draw30%
Bochum36%
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.19
Over 2.5
40%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.3%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–011.3%
- 1–011.2%
- 1–27.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
52%Possession55%
47%Territory37%
32%From set plays26%
0.09Chance quality0.09
4.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for St. Pauli, 3 for Bochum. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 45 matches, not the full season.